000
FXUS61 KBTV 081733
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1233 PM EST WED FEB 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. A SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR
PUSHES INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1208 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE REGION IS
PROVIDING THE AREA WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE FEBRUARY DAY.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY STREAM INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE AREA AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION. OTHERWISE EXPECT LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND HIGHS 25-35 DEGREES...COLDEST IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
AND WARMEST IN THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 332 AM EST WEDNESDAY...MDLS FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER PAST FEW
DAYS W/ UPPER LOW OVER NE CANADA DIGGING SLOWLY SOUTH AND WEST
INTO THE OHIO. THIS IS GOING TO FORCE SFC RIDGE TO PUSH MORE
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. IN BETWEEN REMAINS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY
THAT STAYS NORTH OF THE BORDER THURSDAY/THURSDAY NGT BFR PUSHING
INTO ST LAW VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. SSW FLOW AHEAD OF BOUNDARY
FOR BOTH DAYS ALLOWS FOR WAA TO PUSH TEMPS TO AT OR ABV MDL
GUIDANCE. STRONG GRADIENT AHEAD OF BOUNDARY WILL BRING GUST
POTENTIAL OF 20-30MPH TO MUCH OF THE CWA. W/ 925 TEMPS AHEAD OF
FRNT AROUND -2C TO -4C...AND BEHIND IT RANGING FROM -22C TO
-26C...DO EXPECT SOME POTENTIAL SQUALL ACTIVTY ALONG WITH A SHARP
DROP IN TEMPS BY FRI AFTNOON. KEEP CHANCE POPS IN CWA FOR
BEGINNING OF FROPA ATTM...BUT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES
ESPECIALLY OVER HIR TRRN/NW FACING SLOPES IS PROBABLE W/ BEST
CHANCES GOING ITO THE EVENING HRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EST WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL USHER IN BEHIND IT SOME OF THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON
TIMING...AS THE GFS IS QUICKER TO MOVE THE FRONT ACROSS WHILE THE
EUROPEAN IS SLOWER. STILL EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND ALSO SHARPLY FALLING TEMPERATURES. LOWS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VT AND THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY TO STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN VT.

BEYOND SUNDAY...GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER MARKEDLY ON SYNOPTIC SCALE
DETAILS WHICH LIMITS FCSTR CONFIDENCE. THE GFS OFFERS A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH A QUICKER MODERATING TREND...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER TO MOVE THE POLAR VORTEX OUT AND IS MORE
AMPLIFIED. FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY IS ESSENTIALLY A BLEND BETWEEN
BOTH GFS AND EUROPEAN SOLUTIONS...THOUGH BOTH MODELS DO SHOW
AGREEMENT ON A WARMUP FOR EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU 18Z THURS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRES ACRS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WITH VIS SATL PIC SHOWING SOME HIGH CLOUDS ADVECTING TWD
RUT TAF SITE ATTM. THIS MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE WL PRODUCE A CLOUD
DECK BTWN 12000 AND 15000 FT AT RUT BTWN 00Z AND 06Z TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LAKE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH SW WINDS AND SOME UPSLOPE FLW TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND
POTENTIAL MVFR CONDITIONS AT SLK BTWN 09Z-15Z THURS. WL MENTION
SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 2500 FT TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLR SKIES WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNTS
TODAY...BECMG LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIHG PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU 00Z SAT...THEN ARCTIC
FRNT WL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW SQUALLS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...WINDS WL SHIFT FROM SW ON FRIDAY TO
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNTS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER
SURGE OF COLD AIR WITH MORE SNOW SHOWERS WL BE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...TABER

NWS BTV Office Area Forecast Discussion