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Click on a Mesoscale Analysis Parameter above, then select
"Start Loop" below the image. Images updated around 55 minutes
after the hour by the NWS Office in Burlington, VT
Mesoscale Analysis Parameter
Decsriptions
- Temperature
- A measure of the warmth of the ambient air measured by a
suitable instrument such as a thermometer.
- Dew Point (Dew-Point Temperature)
- A measure of atmospheric moisture. The temperature to which air
must be cooled, at constant pressure and moisture content, in order
for saturation to occur. The higher the dew point, the greater
amount of water vapor in the air mass.
- Wind
|
Sustained Wind Speed |
Descriptive Term |
|
40 mph or greater |
Strong,
dangerous, or damaging |
|
30-40 mph |
Very
Windy |
|
20-30 mph |
Windy |
|
15-25 mph |
Breezy,
Brisk, or Blustery |
|
5-15 mph or 10-20 mph |
None |
|
0-5 mph |
Light or
light and variable wind |
The horizontal motion of the
air past a given point. Winds begin with differences in air
pressures. Pressure that's higher at one place than another sets up
a force pushing from the high toward the low pressure. The greater
the difference in pressures, the stronger the force. The distance
between the area of high pressure and the area of low pressure also
determines how fast the moving air is accelerated. Meteorologists
refer to the force that starts the wind flowing as the "pressure
gradient force."
High and low pressure are relative. There's
no set number that divides high and low pressure. Wind is used to
describe the prevailing direction from which the wind is blowing
with the speed given usually in miles per hour or knots. The
following table gives descriptions of winds used in National Weather
Service forecasts.
Visibility
The greatest distance an observer can see and identify prominent
objects.
Relative Humidity
A dimensionless ratio, expressed in percent, of the amount of
atmospheric moisture present relative to the amount that would be
present if the air were saturated. Since the latter amount is
dependent on temperature, relative humidity is a function of both
moisture content and temperature. As such, relative humidity by
itself does not directly indicate the actual amount of atmospheric
moisture present.
Heat Index
The Heat Index (HI) or the "Apparent Temperature" is an accurate
measure of how hot it really feels when the Relative Humidity (RH)
is added to the actual air temperature. To find the Heat Index (HI),
look at the Heat Index (HI) Chart (right).
As an example, if
the air temperature is 90°F (found at the left side of the table)
and the Relative Humidity (RH) is 70% (found at the top of the
table), the Heat Index (HI)--or how hot it actually feels--is 106°F.
This is at the intersection of the row 90°F and the 70% column.
This index was devised for shady, light wind conditions.
Exposure to full sunshine can increase Heat Index (HI) values by up
to 15°F. Also strong winds, particularly with very hot, dry air, can
be extremely dangerous.
Any value Heat Index (HI) greater
than 105°F is in the Danger Category.
When the Heat Index is between 105-115°F for 3 hours or more, a
Heat Advisory will be issued by the
local National Weather Service Forecast Office.
|
Category |
Classification |
Heat Index/Apparent Temperature (°F) |
General Affect on People in High Risk Groups |
|
IV |
Extremely Hot |
130°F or Higher |
Heat/Sunstroke HIGHLY LIKELY with
continued exposure |
|
III |
Very Hot |
105°F - 130°F |
Sunstroke, heat cramps, or heat exhaustion
LIKELY, and heatstroke
POSSIBLE with prolonged exposure
and/or physical activity |
|
II |
Hot |
90°F - 105°F |
Sunstroke, heat cramps, or heat exhaustion
POSSIBLE with prolonged exposure
and/or physical activity |
|
I |
Very Warm |
80°F - 90°F |
Fatigue POSSIBLE with prolonged
exposure and/or physical activity |
Wind Chill
The wind chill is the effect of the wind on people and animals.
The wind chill temperature is based on the rate of heat loss from
exposed skin caused by wind and cold and is to give you an
approximation of how cold the air feels on your body.
As the
wind increases, it removes heat from the body, driving down skin
temperature and eventually the internal body temperature. Therefore,
the wind makes it FEEL much colder. If
the temperature is 0°F and the wind is blowing at 15 mph, the wind
chill temperature is -19°F. At this level, exposed skin can freeze
in just a few minutes.
The only effect wind chill has on
inanimate objects, such as car radiators and water pipes, is to
shorten the amount of time for the object to cool. The inanimate
object will not cool below the actual air temperature. For example,
if the temperature outside is -5°F and the wind chill temperature is
-31°F, then your car's radiator temperature will be no lower than
the air temperature of -5°F.

Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE)
It defines the vertically integrated positive buoyancy of an
adiabatically rising air parcel on a sounding. This is proportional
to the amount kinetic energy that the air parcel gains while it is
warmer that its surrounding environment. As a result, CAPE provides
the best measure of the potential instability available in the
atmosphere. Increasing values of CAPE generally lead to
progressively vigorous convection. However, severe thunderstorms can
form in environments showing weak to moderate CAPE, especially if
the Storm Relative Helicity values are high.
CAPE = 0 to
1000 > marginally unstable CAPE = 1000 to 2500 > moderately
unstable CAPE = 2500 to 3500 > very unstable CAPE = 3500 or
greater > extremely unstable
Lifted Index (LI)
|
Lifted Index (LI) |
Thunderstorm Indication |
|
< -5 |
Very
Unstable, Heavy/strong thunderstorm potential |
|
-3 to -5 |
Unstable,
Thunderstorms probable |
|
0 to -2 |
Marginally Unstable, Thunderstorms possible |
It is a stability index used to
determine thunderstorm potential. The LI is calculated by taking a
representative low level air parcel and lifting it adiabatically to
500 mb. The algebraic difference between this air parcel and the
sounding temperature at 500 mb (around 18,000 feet) denotes the LI.
Since the LI accounts for moisture below 850 mb, it provides more
reliable stability information than the Showalter Index (SWI). The
greater negative values of LI indicate energy available for parcel
ascent.
K-Index
|
K-index value |
Thunderstorm Probability |
|
Above 35 |
Numerous
thunderstorms |
|
31 to 35 |
Scattered
thunderstorms |
|
26 to 30 |
Widely
scattered thunderstorms |
|
20 to 25 |
Isolated
thunderstorms |
|
< 20 |
None |
It is a measure of the
thunderstorm potential based on vertical temperature lapse rate,
moisture content of the lower atmosphere, and the vertical extent of
the moist layer. The temperature difference between 850 mb and 500
mb is used to parameterize the vertical temperature lapse rate. The
850 dew point provides information on the moisture content of the
lower atmosphere. The vertical extent of the moist layer is
represented by the difference of the 700 mb temperature and 700 mb
dewpoint. This is called the 700 mb
temperature-dew point depression.
The index is
derived arithmetically and does not require a plotted sounding.
K-index = [(850 mb temperature - 500 mb temperature) + 850 mb dew
point - 700 dew point depression]. The K-index favors non-severe
convection, especially heavy rain producing convection. Threshold
values vary with season, location, and synoptic situation.
K-indices are also used to determine the potential of flooding. When
your K-index is high (above 35), it means that you will likely see
numerous thunderstorms develop. If these thunderstorms track across
the same area, you may have a various serious flooding situation on
your hands.
Showalter Index (SWI)
|
Showalter Index |
Thunderstorm Consideration |
|
< -6 |
Extremely
unstable - good strong thunderstorm potential |
|
-4 to -6 |
Very
unstable - good heavy thunderstorm potential |
|
0 to -3 |
Unstable
- thunderstorms probable |
|
3 to 1 |
Thunderstorm possible - strong trigger needed |
It is a stability index used to
determine thunderstorm potential. The SWI is calculated by lifting
an air parcel adiabatically from 850 mb to 500 mb. The algebraic
difference between the air parcel and the environmental temperature
at 500 mb represents the SWI. It is especially useful when you have
a shallow cool airmass below 850 mb concealing greater convective
potential aloft. However, the SWI will underestimate the convective
potential for cool layers extending above 850 mb. It also does not
take in account diurnal heating or moisture below 850 mb. As a
result, one must be very careful when using this index.
Total Totals (TT)
This index estimates the potential for severe convection. It
combines the effects of vertical temperature lapse rate (Vertical
Totals or VT) and low level moisture (Cross Totals or CT) in a given
environment. The following formulas are used to create the Total
Totals index:
- Vertical Totals (VT) = 850 mb temperature - 500 mb
temperature
- Cross Totals (CT) = 850 mb dew point - 500 mb temperature
When the two are combined, you have the following formula:
Total Totals (TT) = Vertical Totals (VT) + Cross Totals (CT). The
following table shows what these relationships typically mean east
of the Rockies:
|
Cross Totals |
Vertical Totals |
Total Totals |
Forecast |
| 30 |
26 or
more |
56 |
Numerous thunderstorms, scattered severe, scattered
tornadoes |
| 26-29 |
26 or
more |
52 |
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms, few to scattered
severe, few tornadoes |
| 24-25 |
26 or
more |
50 |
Scattered thunderstorms, few severe, isolated tornadoes |
| 22-23 |
26 or
more |
48 |
Scattered thunderstorms, isolated severe |
| 20-21 |
26 or
more |
46 |
Scattered thunderstorms |
| 18-19 |
26 or
more |
44 |
Isolated or few thunderstorms |
High lapse rates or a source of
low level moisture will yield large values of TT. However, high
lapse rates can produce large TT, with little supporting low level
moisture. The sounding must be examined carefully to ascertain the
validity of the TT for a given environment. Also as with any index,
you must carefully examine your environment.
Sky Cover
Used in a forecast to describes the predominant/average sky
condition based upon percent (%) of the sky covered by opaque (not
transparent) clouds.
|
Sky Condition |
Cloud Coverage |
|
90-100% |
Cloudy |
|
70-90% |
Mostly
Cloudy or Considerable Cloudiness |
|
40-70% |
Partly
Cloudy or Partly Sunny |
|
20-40% |
Mostly
Clear or Mostly Sunny |
|
0-20% |
Clear or
Sunny |
Pressure
The force exerted by the weight of the atmosphere, also known as
atmospheric pressure. When measured on a barometer, it is referred
to as barometric pressure and it is expressed in inches of mercury,
millibars, or kiloPascals.
Descriptions and script by the NWS
Office in Burlington, Vermont
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